Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
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The rupee had slumped to a record low of 59.9850 rupee to the dollar on Thursday, as the country's record high current account deficit is exacerbating its vulnerability in an emerging market rout.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was a net seller of the US dollar in August, reversing its net buying position from July. During the current financial year up to August, the central bank had sold a net $1.11 billion. The RBI sold a net total of $6.49 billion worth of the foreign currency in August, according to the central bank's monthly bulletin.
The ongoing headwinds like war-triggered inflation, rate tightening by RBI and weak rupee will lead to a Rs 60,000 crore increase in 'risky debt' in FY23, a ratings agency warned on Monday. Defining 'risky debt' as borrowings by companies having a net leverage or debt to operating profit ratio of more than five times, India Ratings said the ongoing troubles will take the stock of such loans to Rs 6.9 lakh crore by end of FY23, as against the Rs 6.3 lakh crore it would have been but for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. An analysis of 1,385 corporate entities led the domestic ratings agency to trim revenue growth projection for entities in a post-war scenario and also forecast narrowing of the profit margins due to higher commodity prices, an increase in interest rates of up to 1 per cent and the rupee depreciating by a tenth.
'My advice: Don't mark your portfolio to market every day. Focus on survival.'
Airfares on major domestic routes such as Kolkata-Bagdogra, Delhi-Bengaluru, and Delhi-Mumbai have witnessed an increase of up to 12.7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in May this year, according to data by Thomas Cook (India) and SOTC Travel. The recent increase in aviation turbine fuel prices, rupee depreciation, reduction of flights by key players, and grounding of planes due to engine supply issues have contributed to the rise in airfares, said aviation industry experts. However, the data also shows that summer airfares on key routes such as Delhi-Leh and Delhi-Kolkata have significantly decreased due to the introduction of new flights.
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Consultants say those selling imported consumer durables, apparel, food products, furniture, etc, are the ones hit the hardest.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 4,285 crore from Indian equities in the first three trading days of the month driven by apprehensions ahead of the third-quarter earnings season and high valuations of domestic stocks. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
Ambani and Adani account for a fifth of the net worth of all billionaire promoters in the country and half the combined net worth of the top 10.
Reliance Industries, the Tata group, Bharti Airtel and Aditya Birla are among Indian conglomerates that have hedged their revenue and costs linked to the US dollar, giving them financial cover as the rupee fell past 80 against the greenback on Tuesday.
With rupee falling to new lows, losses on diesel and cooking fuel have widened to their highest levels this year, upsetting the government's subsidy maths.
A weaker rupee could aid corporate earnings through its positive impact on export intensive sectors such as information technology services, pharmaceuticals and commodity producers such as metal and mining, and oil and gas companies.
Analysts are of the opinion that given the change in the business model, which is resulting in smaller deals spreading across the whole year, clients may be already renegotiating prices.
Amid the rupee declining against the US dollar, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said the Indian currency is relatively better placed than other global currencies against the greenback. Emerging market currencies have been falling against the dollar amid geopolitical tensions in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, concerns over growth, high global crude prices, sustained inflation and central banks worldwide adopting hawkish monetary policy approach. "We are relatively better placed. We are not a closed economy. We are part of the globalised world.
Auto industry volumes have grown by 2.5 per cent overall, led by domestic sales of three-wheelers, two-wheelers and passenger vehicles (PVs) in the first quarter of this financial year. Analysts predict an 18 per cent growth in revenues for automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and profit growth of 69 per cent year-on-year (YoY). However, on a sequential basis, a decline in revenues as well as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins is expected.
After falling 10 per cent against the greenback in 2022, the rupee staged a comeback in 2023 as it appreciated, albeit marginally, on the back of strong portfolio inflows, in addition to timely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The Indian unit appreciated by 0.16 percent in six months until June 28. The rupee stood in third place in terms of appreciation against the US dollar among the 12 Asian currencies and in 12th place of the 23 emerging-market currencies.
After two weeks of buying, FPIs turned net sellers in Indian equities this week, with a net withdrawal of Rs 976 crore amid a strengthening US dollar and steady rise in US 10-year bond yields, impacting investor sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) began the week on a positive note, investing Rs 3,126 crore in equities during the first two trading sessions (December 16-20).
A depreciating rupee, which briefly hit 80 to the dollar on Tuesday, may boost India's exports but price-inelastic imports of crude oil and gold would mean limited relief on the trade deficit, which clocked a record $26.2 billion in June. Due to global risk aversion on the back of geo-political tensions and aggressive policy tightening by the Fed, the dollar has appreciated against most currencies, including the rupee. And, with other currencies depreciating, India's comparative advantage in this respect may be limited.
The highlights of the RBI's fourth monetary policy review of fiscal year 2022-23 announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
All sectoral indices ended lower. BSE Telecommunication tanked 2.18 per cent, metal (1.77 per cent), auto (1.70 per cent), energy (1.64 per cent), oil & gas (1.59 per cent), commodities (1.39 per cent) and financial services (1.37 per cent) were the major laggards.
Travel companies are reducing the number of days from packages to make it more affordable for globe trotters.
The Indian rupee was off to a bad start in the new year as it suffered the worst single-day drop in over two weeks today by falling 32 paise to end at 63.35 against the US dollar.
The broader NSE Nifty, after slipping below the 10,500-mark to hit a low of 10,477, finally concluded 29 points, or 0.27 per cent, down at 10,524.
On Friday, the rupee had gained 9 paise to close at a fresh one-week high of 67.08.
The Indian rupee is down nearly 2 per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of January 2019. Experts attribute the Indian rupee's relatively poor performance to a sharper-than-expected fall in economic growth in India.
If there was one event that made the month of August stand out, it was a strengthening of the dollar index to levels last seen only 20 years ago, as the Federal Reserve dispelled all doubts about its intention to continue raising interest rates. Predictably, most currencies suffered against the US unit, with the bulk of the losers belonging to the emerging markets pack. Amid the volatility, the rupee, however, has displayed significant resilience and fared much better than most of its peer currencies.
The expectations of a borrowing cut by the government faded among bond-market participants after the general election results because they feel the compulsions of running a coalition may put pressure on the exchequer, according to dealers. The recent trend of moderate depreciation in the rupee's nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) might not persist if there are significant changes to the structural reform agenda.
Brokerage firm CLSA says in its interactions with government officials, measures such as the dollar-deposit scheme were under consideration.
The rupee had ended 12 paise higher at 63.70 on Monday.
Despite the narrowing spread of yields between the benchmark 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury bond, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are continuing to invest in the domestic debt market this year -- a trend backed by a stable currency and a less volatile bond market. FPIs have been net buyers in the debt market in 2023 so far, marking the first time since 2019. The yield spread between the 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury note stood at 3.14 per cent on August 8 - the narrowest in over a decade.
Referring to the concerns raised by industry captains and others during the meeting, Gujral admitted that the weakening Rupee is hurting importers.
The rupee has dropped by 49 paise or 0.75 per cent in four days.
Apart from the emotional value attached to buying gold, the yellow metal offers protection against inflation, interest rate spikes, currency and geopolitical risks, says Anamika Pareek.
Economists polled in a recent survey by Ficci unanimously felt that the rupee will continue to be under pressure in 2018-19
The rupee has been falling for five straight weeks, taking its losses this quarter to 6.6 per cent, making it the worst performing currencies in Asia during this period.
From a longer term perspective an improvement in economic environment is necessary for a rise in inbound deals.
Over 60-70% of the guests at five-star hotels are foreigners. However, hotels say, if dollar remains at this level, the mix could change.
The rupee on Friday slipped 1 paisa to close at its all-time low of 78.33 (provisional) against the US dollar. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 78.20 and finally settled at its all-time low of 78.33, down 1 paisa from its previous close. During the day, the local unit witnessed an intra-day high of 78.19 and a low of 78.35 against the American currency.
Can we find fault with RBI for not intervening enough in the market? Actually no, say some experts. A correction in rupee was long overdue.
The greenback's strength against other Asian currencies and lacklustre local equity markets made the rupee depreciate.
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